Letters, Research and Whitepapers

We set our investment process to what the world could look like in 2028. We are more concerned with the ‘two birds in the bush’ so to speak. And then extending the adage further: what is the price implying to catch these plump birds.

We feel the need to say: ‘Cheer Up!’ – this moment too shall pass. In the face of uncertainties, persistently negative headlines, and downbeat sentiment, it is always more helpful to lengthen perspective when others are shortening theirs.

For us, these turbulent periods are somewhat cathartic for our investment process. Investing mistakes are usually made in the ‘good times’ when the price one pays can diminish the returns on even the most wonderful businesses because future price expectations are based on a hopeful set of outcomes rather than probabilistic realism.

If we had to summarise our perception of the first two years of the 2020’s decade, our impulse is to go with: change and chaos.

Given your and our long-term focus, these short-term price moves over a month, quarter or even a year concerning our long-term investment strategy should be of little significance.

The second quarter of 2021 would probably rank as the most ‘reflationary’ economic environment that we’ve seen in decades. 

We’ve utilised this buoyancy to reposition the portfolio outside of South Africa and into global opportunity sets that we’ve been working on over the last few years